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Registro Completo |
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Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Unidades Centrais. |
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Data corrente: |
07/07/2016 |
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Data da última atualização: |
11/07/2016 |
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Tipo da produção científica: |
Artigo em Periódico Indexado |
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Autoria: |
MASSETTI, E.; GUIDUCCI, R. do C. N.; OLIVEIRA, A. F. de; MENDELSOHN, R. |
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Afiliação: |
EMANUELE MASSETTI; ROSANA DO CARMO NASCIMENTO GUIDUCCI, SGI; ARYEVERTON FORTES DE OLIVEIRA, CNPTIA; ROBERT MENDELSOHN. |
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Título: |
The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level. |
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Ano de publicação: |
2013 |
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Fonte/Imprenta: |
Social science research network, New York, n. 200, p. 1-31, dec. 2013. |
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Idioma: |
Inglês |
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Conteúdo: |
We use at microregion level from the Brazilian Census years 1975, 1985, 1995 and 2006 to assess the impact of climate change on Brazilian agriculture using a Ricardian model. We estimate the Ricardian model using repeated cross sections for each Census Year, a pooled model and a twostage model based on Hsiao 2003. Results show that a marginal increase of temperature is harmful for agriculture in all regions of Brazil, with the exception of the South. The most negative impacts are felt in the North and in the North-East. There is mixed evidence on the effect of a marginal impact of precipitation. Additional rainfall is beneficial in South, South-East and in the Center-West. It is harmful in other regions. Impact estimates with three GCM scenarios generated using the A2 SRES emission scenario show that climate change is expected to be generally harmful in 2060. In 2100 only the climate change scenario generated by the Hadley HADCM3 model predicts negative impacts; the MIMR model predicts that climate change will not significantly affect land values while the NCPCM model predicts significant beneficial effects using the Hsiao model and nonsignificant beneficial effects using the pooled model. Among Brazilian regions, only the South and some cases the South-East are expected to benefit from climate change. |
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Palavras-Chave: |
Impacto econônico. |
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Thesagro: |
Mudança Climática; Produção agrícola; Produtividade. |
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Thesaurus Nal: |
Agricultural products; Agriculture; Climate change; Economic impact. |
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Categoria do assunto: |
-- |
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URL: |
https://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/item/145168/1/SSRN-impact-of-climate-change.pdf
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Marc: |
LEADER 02108naa a2200253 a 4500
001 2048378
005 2016-07-11
008 2013 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d
100 1 $aMASSETTI, E.
245 $aThe impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture$ba ricardian study at microregion level.$h[electronic resource]
260 $c2013
520 $aWe use at microregion level from the Brazilian Census years 1975, 1985, 1995 and 2006 to assess the impact of climate change on Brazilian agriculture using a Ricardian model. We estimate the Ricardian model using repeated cross sections for each Census Year, a pooled model and a twostage model based on Hsiao 2003. Results show that a marginal increase of temperature is harmful for agriculture in all regions of Brazil, with the exception of the South. The most negative impacts are felt in the North and in the North-East. There is mixed evidence on the effect of a marginal impact of precipitation. Additional rainfall is beneficial in South, South-East and in the Center-West. It is harmful in other regions. Impact estimates with three GCM scenarios generated using the A2 SRES emission scenario show that climate change is expected to be generally harmful in 2060. In 2100 only the climate change scenario generated by the Hadley HADCM3 model predicts negative impacts; the MIMR model predicts that climate change will not significantly affect land values while the NCPCM model predicts significant beneficial effects using the Hsiao model and nonsignificant beneficial effects using the pooled model. Among Brazilian regions, only the South and some cases the South-East are expected to benefit from climate change.
650 $aAgricultural products
650 $aAgriculture
650 $aClimate change
650 $aEconomic impact
650 $aMudança Climática
650 $aProdução agrícola
650 $aProdutividade
653 $aImpacto econônico
700 1 $aGUIDUCCI, R. do C. N.
700 1 $aOLIVEIRA, A. F. de
700 1 $aMENDELSOHN, R.
773 $tSocial science research network, New York$gn. 200, p. 1-31, dec. 2013.
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Embrapa Unidades Centrais (AI-SEDE) |
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