02108naa a2200253 a 450000100080000000500110000800800410001910000170006024501260007726000090020352013280021265000260154065000160156665000190158265000200160165000240162165000250164565000180167065300230168870000260171170000230173770000190176077300750177920483782016-07-11       2013    bl uuuu     u00u1 u    #d1 aMASSETTI, E.  aThe impact of climate change on the brazilian agricultureba ricardian study at microregion level.h[electronic resource]  c2013  aWe use at microregion level from the Brazilian Census years 1975, 1985, 1995 and 2006 to assess the impact of climate change on Brazilian agriculture using a Ricardian model. We estimate the Ricardian model using repeated cross sections for each Census Year, a pooled model and a twostage model based on Hsiao 2003. Results show that a marginal increase of temperature is harmful for agriculture in all regions of Brazil, with the exception of the South. The most negative impacts are felt in the North and in the North-East. There is mixed evidence on the effect of a marginal impact of precipitation. Additional rainfall is beneficial in South, South-East and in the Center-West. It is harmful in other regions. Impact estimates with three GCM scenarios generated using the A2 SRES emission scenario show that climate change is expected to be generally harmful in 2060. In 2100 only the climate change scenario generated by the Hadley HADCM3 model predicts negative impacts; the MIMR model predicts that climate change will not significantly affect land values while the NCPCM model predicts significant beneficial effects using the Hsiao model and nonsignificant beneficial effects using the pooled model. Among Brazilian regions, only the South and some cases the South-East are expected to benefit from climate change.  aAgricultural products  aAgriculture  aClimate change  aEconomic impact  aMudança Climática  aProdução agrícola  aProdutividade  aImpacto econônico1 aGUIDUCCI, R. do C. N.1 aOLIVEIRA, A. F. de1 aMENDELSOHN, R.  tSocial science research network, New Yorkgn. 200, p. 1-31, dec. 2013.