01768naa a2200193 a 450000100080000000500110000800800410001902200140006010000220007424501020009626000090019852012410020765000120144865000110146070000200147170000140149170000200150577300490152516330412023-05-31       1993    bl uuuu     u00u1 u    #d  a0191-29171 aMORA-AGUILERA, G.  aDevelopment of a Prediction Model for Papaya Ringospot in Veracruz Mexico.h[electronic resource]  c1993  aA model to predict incidence of papaya ringspot was developed and validated from 5 yr of fied observations in central Veracruz, Mexico. The model was developed from 1 yr of data collected from papaya (Carica papaya) plantations in two different locations in Veracruz during 1985-1986. Incidence of papaya ringspot was evaluated every 15 days, and viral infection was confirmed by ELISA. Aphid vectors (Myzus persiacae, Aphis gossypii, A. citricola, and Macrosiphum euphorbiae) of papaya ringspot virus were collected every 3 days from Moericke yellow pan traps placed at each location. The prediction model was obtained from an examination of the matrix of Pearson's correlation coefficients and by simple and multiple regression analysis. Model selection was based on Mallow's Cp statistic, proportion of variance explained, variance inflation factor, analysis of structure, and predictive capacity. The largest amount of variation in the data was accounted for by model y= -1.45 + 0.42 AN5 + 0.00016 PW + 0.116 AG5 - 0.0058 AN2(5), in which y was the incremental increase of disease (y1 - yt-1) at any given time (t); AN5, and MP5(2) were the numbers of the alate aphid species A. nerii, A. gossypii, and Myzus persicae, respectively.  aDoença  aVírus1 aANGEL-NIETO, D.1 aTELIZ, D.1 aCAMPBELL, C. L.  tPlant Diseasegv.77, n.12, p.1205, dec./1993