01587nam a2200193 a 450000100080000000500110000800800410001910000260006024502180008626001200030430000100042450000950043452007880052965000120131765000100132965000100133965300170134965300270136611279412023-07-04       1982    bl uuuu     u0uu1 u    #d1 aGARCÍA BENAVIDES, J.  aUna metodologia para la estimacion de probabilidades de lluvia por procedimientos cuantitativos, en puntos carentes de registros, sin el analisis espacial tradicional. estudio de un casobEstado Falcon, Venezuela.  aCoro, Venezuela: Centro de Ecología y Zonas Aridas/ Universidad Nacional Experimental "Francisco de Miranda"c1982  a30 p.  aTrabalho apresentado no I Simpósio Brasileiro do Trópico Semi-Árido, Olinda, ago. 1982.  aA method for the estimation of rain probabilities in points in Falcon State, Venezuela, defined by its geographical coordenates using a desk microcomputer is presented in this article. The steps are as follows: selection of the best fit probability distribution, correction of parameters in function of the lenght of the historical series, error studies in short series, selection of empirical models to make estimations, statiscal tests to validate the system, comparisons between historical and simulated series, and others. An important step during validation and verification is the comparison of the results with those calculated by conventional techniques ofisolines. This model substitutes the equivalent to 132 conventional maps of rain probability with acceptable precision.  aClimate  aChuva  aClima  aPluviosidade  aProbabilidade de chuva