01787naa a2200277 a 450000100080000000500110000800800410001910000270006024501000008726000090018750001080019652009170030465000200122165000120124165000110125365000180126465000220128265000100130465000200131465300210133465300160135565300110137165300140138270000200139677300930141621027802019-02-25       2018    bl uuuu     u00u1 u    #d1 aAPARECIDO, L. E. de O.  aForecasting of the annual yield of Arabic coffee using water deficiency.h[electronic resource]  c2018  aTítulo em português: Previsão de produtividade anual de café arábica por meio do deficit hídrico.  aThe objective of this work was to develop agrometeorological models for the forecasting of the annual yields of Arabic coffee (Coffea arabica), using monthly water deficits (DEFs) during the coffee cycle, in important locations in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. For the construction of the models, a meteorological data set spanning of 18 years and multiple linear regressions were used. The models were calibrated in highand low-yield seasons due to the high-biennial yields in Brazil. All calibrated models for high- and low-yield seasons were accurate and significant at 5% probability, with mean absolute percentage errors ≤2.9%. The minimum forecasting period for yield is six months for southern Minas Gerais and Cerrado Mineiro. In high‑yield seasons, water deficits affect more the reproductive stage of coffee and, in low-yield seasons, they affect more the vegetative stage of the crop.  aAgrometeorology  aClimate  aModels  aWater balance  aBalanço Hídrico  aClima  aCoffea Arábica  aAgrometeorologia  aForecasting  aModelo  aPrevisão1 aROLIM, G. de S.  tPesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira, Brasília, DFgv. 53, n. 12, p. 1299-1310, Dez. 2018.