02273nam a2200277 a 450000100080000000500110000800800410001902200140006010000280007424501120010226001980021430000190041252013230043165000160175465000220177065000150179265000220180765000180182965000210184765000160186865000220188465000160190670000320192270000180195470000230197220794052020-01-07       2017    bl uuuu     u00u1 u    #d  a2160-21151 aFERRARINI, A. dos S. F.  aThe expansion of irrigated agriculture in Brazil and potential regional limitations.h[electronic resource]  aIn: ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON GLOBAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, 20., 2017, West Lafayette. Global economic analysis in the 21st century: challenges and opportunities. West Lafayette: Purdue Universityc2017  aNão paginado.  aSummary. Regional expansion of irrigated agriculture causes a growth in food production in the country, minimizes risks for the farmer and strengthens food security for future generations. However, at the same time, it has a damaging effect on water availability, via demands for water use, which may intensify situations of microregional water scarcity6. The TERM-BR model was used to simulate expansion scenarios in irrigated areas, aiming at verifying the impact in the water use for 2025. Scenarios were adapted from the National Water Resources Plan (PNRH) and simulations were carried out for areas deemed potentially suitable for irrigation based on the Ministry of National Integration report (MI). Irrigated agriculture was separated from dry farming in terms of differential productivity. The Climatic Water Balance (CWB) was estimated for Northeastern States in order to compare regional water supply and demand. Results for the Brazil regions suggest that the greater impact on the GDP, investment and use of regional families would take place in the state of Mato Grosso, in the Midwest region of the country. The comparative result of the CWB and the TERM-BR model for states in the Northeastern region point to potential water availability problems in the states of Alagoas and Pernambuco in particular.  aAgriculture  aIrrigated farming  aIrrigation  aSimulation models  aWater balance  aWater management  aAgricultura  aBalanço hídrico  aSimulação1 aFERREIRA FILHO, J. B. de S.1 aCUADRA, S. V.1 aVICTORIA, D. de C.