02186naa a2200325 a 450000100080000000500110000800800410001902400570006010000190011724501290013626000090026552011870027465000190146165000160148065000230149665000250151965000140154465300200155865300080157865300210158665300230160765300260163065300110165665300190166770000180168670000240170470000190172870000260174777300870177320035472023-03-29       2014    bl uuuu     u00u1 u    #d7 ahttps://doi.org/10.1590/S0100-204X20140010000012DOI1 aANDRADE, A. S.  aClimate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.h[electronic resource]  c2014  aThe objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (&lt10% to &gt60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.  aClimate change  aCrop models  aUrochloa brizantha  aBrachiaria Brizantha  aGramínea  aEmpirical model  aETA  aModelo empírico  aModelos de cultivo  aMudanças climáticas  aPrecis  aTropical grass1 aSANTOS, P. M.1 aPEZZOPANE, J. R. M.1 aBETTIOL, G. M.1 aEVANGELISTA, S. R. M.  tPesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira, Brasíliagv. 49, n. 10, p. 745-753, out. 2014.