Data/hora: 10/06/2024 03:52:47

Biblioteca(s): | Embrapa Agricultura Digital.
Data corrente: | 31/05/2021
Data da última atualização: | 02/06/2021
Autoria: | MILLINGTON, J. D. A.; KATERINCHUK, V.; SILVA, R. F. B. da; VICTORIA, D. de C.; BATISTELLA, M.
Afiliação: | JAMES D. A. MILLINGTON, KING’S COLLEGE LONDON; VALERI KATERINCHUK, KING'S COLLEGE LONDON; RAMON FELIPE BICUDO DA SILVA, MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY, NEPAM/UNICAMP; DANIEL DE CASTRO VICTORIA, CNPTIA; MATEUS BATISTELLA, NEPAM/UNICAMP, CNPTIA.
Título: | Modelling drivers of Brazilian agricultural change in a telecoupled world.
Ano de publicação: | 2021
Fonte/Imprenta: | Environmental Modelling and Software, v. 139, p. 1-16, May 2021.
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105024
Idioma: | Inglês
Conteúdo: | Abstract. Increasing global demand for agricultural commodities has driven local land use/cover change (LUCC) and agricultural production across Brazil during the 21st century. Modelling tools are needed to help understand the range of possible outcomes due to these 'telecoupled' global-to-local relationships, given future political, economic and environmental uncertainties. Here, we present CRAFTY-Brazil, a LUCC model representing production of multiple agricultural commodities that accounts for spatially explicit (e.g., land access) and temporally contingent (e.g., agricultural debt) processes of importance across our nearly four million km2 Brazilian study area. We calibrate the model calibration for 2001-2018, and run tests and scenarios about commodity demand, agricultural yields, climate change, and policy decisions for 2019-2035. Results indicate greater confidence in modelled time-series than spatial allocation. We discuss how our approach might be best understood to be agency-based, rather than agent-based, and highlight questions more and less appropriate for this approach.
Palavras-Chave: | Agent-based; Agricultural production; Cobertura da terra; CRAFTY framework; CRAFTY-Brazil; Teleacoplamento; Telecoupling.
Thesagro: | Agricultura; Produção Agrícola; Simulação; Uso da Terra.
Thesaurus Nal: | Agriculture; Land cover; Land use; Simulation models.
Categoria do assunto: | X Pesquisa, Tecnologia e Engenharia
Registro original: | Embrapa Agricultura Digital (CNPTIA)
Exemplares: | CNPTIA - (20920-1) - UPC - AP - DD -  -  -  - DIS