|
|
Registros recuperados : 1 | |
1. | | VIANNA, M. S.; WILLIAMS, K. W.; LITTLETON, E. W.; CABRAL, O. M. R.; CERRI, C. E. P.; DE JONG VAN LIER, Q.; MARTHEWS, T. R.; HAYMAN, G.; ZERI, M.; CUADRA, S. V.; CHALLINOR, A. J.; MARIN, F. R.; GALDOS, M. V. Improving the representation of sugarcane crop in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) model for climate impact assessment. GCB Bioenergy: Bioproducts for a Sustainable Bioeconomy, v. 14, n. 10, p. 1097-1116, 2022. Biblioteca(s): Embrapa Agricultura Digital; Embrapa Meio Ambiente. |
| |
Registros recuperados : 1 | |
|
|
| Acesso ao texto completo restrito à biblioteca da Embrapa Meio Ambiente. Para informações adicionais entre em contato com cnpma.biblioteca@embrapa.br. |
Registro Completo
Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Agricultura Digital; Embrapa Meio Ambiente. |
Data corrente: |
28/07/2022 |
Data da última atualização: |
14/07/2023 |
Tipo da produção científica: |
Artigo em Periódico Indexado |
Circulação/Nível: |
A - 1 |
Autoria: |
VIANNA, M. S.; WILLIAMS, K. W.; LITTLETON, E. W.; CABRAL, O. M. R.; CERRI, C. E. P.; DE JONG VAN LIER, Q.; MARTHEWS, T. R.; HAYMAN, G.; ZERI, M.; CUADRA, S. V.; CHALLINOR, A. J.; MARIN, F. R.; GALDOS, M. V. |
Afiliação: |
University of Leeds, INRES/University of Bonn; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter; University of Exeter; University of Exeter; OSVALDO MACHADO RODRIGUES CABRAL, CNPMA; ESALQ/USP; CENA/USP; Centre for Ecology and Hydro-logy, Wallingford; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford; CEMADEN, São José dos Campos; SANTIAGO VIANNA CUADRA, CNPTIA; University of Leeds; ESALQ/USP; University of Leeds. |
Título: |
Improving the representation of sugarcane crop in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) model for climate impact assessment. |
Ano de publicação: |
2022 |
Fonte/Imprenta: |
GCB Bioenergy: Bioproducts for a Sustainable Bioeconomy, v. 14, n. 10, p. 1097-1116, 2022. |
ISSN: |
1757-1707 |
DOI: |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12989 |
Idioma: |
Inglês |
Conteúdo: |
Abstract. Bioenergy from sugarcane production is considered a key mitigation strategy for global warming. Improving its representation in land surface models is important to further understand the interactions between climate and bioenergy production, supporting accurate climate projections and decision-making. This study aimed to calibrate and evaluate the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for climate impact assessments in sugarcane. A dataset composed of soil moisture, water and carbon fluxes and biomass measurements from field experiments across Brazil was used to calibrate and evaluate JULES-crop and JULES-BE parametrisations. The ability to predict the spatiotemporal variability of sugarcane yields and the impact of climate change was also tested at five Brazilian microregions. Parameters related to sugarcane allometry, crop growth and development were derived and tested for JULES-crop and JULES-BE, together with the response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, temperature and drought (CTW-response). Both parametrisations showed comparable performance to other sugarcane dynamic models, with an RMSE of 6.75 and 6.05 t ha-1 for stalk dry matter for JULES-crop and JULES-BE, respectively. The parametrisations were also able to replicate the average yield patterns observed in the five microregions over 30 years when the yield gap factors were taken into account, with the correlation (r) between simulated and observed interannual variability of yields ranging from 0.33 to 0.56. An overall small positive trend was found in future yield projections of sugarcane using the new calibrations, with exception of the Jataí mesoregion which showed a clear negative trend for the SSP5 scenario from the year 2070 to 2100. Our simulations showed that an abrupt negative impact on sugarcane yields is expected if daytime temperatures above 35 oC become more frequent. The newly calibrated version of JULES can be applied regionally and globally to help understand the interactions between climate and bioenergy production. MenosAbstract. Bioenergy from sugarcane production is considered a key mitigation strategy for global warming. Improving its representation in land surface models is important to further understand the interactions between climate and bioenergy production, supporting accurate climate projections and decision-making. This study aimed to calibrate and evaluate the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for climate impact assessments in sugarcane. A dataset composed of soil moisture, water and carbon fluxes and biomass measurements from field experiments across Brazil was used to calibrate and evaluate JULES-crop and JULES-BE parametrisations. The ability to predict the spatiotemporal variability of sugarcane yields and the impact of climate change was also tested at five Brazilian microregions. Parameters related to sugarcane allometry, crop growth and development were derived and tested for JULES-crop and JULES-BE, together with the response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, temperature and drought (CTW-response). Both parametrisations showed comparable performance to other sugarcane dynamic models, with an RMSE of 6.75 and 6.05 t ha-1 for stalk dry matter for JULES-crop and JULES-BE, respectively. The parametrisations were also able to replicate the average yield patterns observed in the five microregions over 30 years when the yield gap factors were taken into account, with the correlation (r) between simulated and observed interannual variability of yields ranging from 0.33 t... Mostrar Tudo |
Palavras-Chave: |
Avaliações de impacto climático; Calibração; Climate impact; Impacto climático; Joint UK Land Environment Simulator; JULES model; Land Surface Models; Modelagem; Mudanças climáticas; Produção de bioenergia; Projeção futura do clima. |
Thesagro: |
Bioenergia; Cana de Açúcar; Simulação. |
Thesaurus NAL: |
Bioenergy; Calibration; Climate; Climate change; Models; Sugarcane. |
Categoria do assunto: |
P Recursos Naturais, Ciências Ambientais e da Terra |
Marc: |
LEADER 03624naa a2200529 a 4500 001 2145050 005 2023-07-14 008 2022 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d 022 $a1757-1707 024 7 $ahttps://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12989$2DOI 100 1 $aVIANNA, M. S. 245 $aImproving the representation of sugarcane crop in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) model for climate impact assessment.$h[electronic resource] 260 $c2022 520 $aAbstract. Bioenergy from sugarcane production is considered a key mitigation strategy for global warming. Improving its representation in land surface models is important to further understand the interactions between climate and bioenergy production, supporting accurate climate projections and decision-making. This study aimed to calibrate and evaluate the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for climate impact assessments in sugarcane. A dataset composed of soil moisture, water and carbon fluxes and biomass measurements from field experiments across Brazil was used to calibrate and evaluate JULES-crop and JULES-BE parametrisations. The ability to predict the spatiotemporal variability of sugarcane yields and the impact of climate change was also tested at five Brazilian microregions. Parameters related to sugarcane allometry, crop growth and development were derived and tested for JULES-crop and JULES-BE, together with the response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, temperature and drought (CTW-response). Both parametrisations showed comparable performance to other sugarcane dynamic models, with an RMSE of 6.75 and 6.05 t ha-1 for stalk dry matter for JULES-crop and JULES-BE, respectively. The parametrisations were also able to replicate the average yield patterns observed in the five microregions over 30 years when the yield gap factors were taken into account, with the correlation (r) between simulated and observed interannual variability of yields ranging from 0.33 to 0.56. An overall small positive trend was found in future yield projections of sugarcane using the new calibrations, with exception of the Jataí mesoregion which showed a clear negative trend for the SSP5 scenario from the year 2070 to 2100. Our simulations showed that an abrupt negative impact on sugarcane yields is expected if daytime temperatures above 35 oC become more frequent. The newly calibrated version of JULES can be applied regionally and globally to help understand the interactions between climate and bioenergy production. 650 $aBioenergy 650 $aCalibration 650 $aClimate 650 $aClimate change 650 $aModels 650 $aSugarcane 650 $aBioenergia 650 $aCana de Açúcar 650 $aSimulação 653 $aAvaliações de impacto climático 653 $aCalibração 653 $aClimate impact 653 $aImpacto climático 653 $aJoint UK Land Environment Simulator 653 $aJULES model 653 $aLand Surface Models 653 $aModelagem 653 $aMudanças climáticas 653 $aProdução de bioenergia 653 $aProjeção futura do clima 700 1 $aWILLIAMS, K. W. 700 1 $aLITTLETON, E. W. 700 1 $aCABRAL, O. M. R. 700 1 $aCERRI, C. E. P. 700 1 $aDE JONG VAN LIER, Q. 700 1 $aMARTHEWS, T. R. 700 1 $aHAYMAN, G. 700 1 $aZERI, M. 700 1 $aCUADRA, S. V. 700 1 $aCHALLINOR, A. J. 700 1 $aMARIN, F. R. 700 1 $aGALDOS, M. V. 773 $tGCB Bioenergy: Bioproducts for a Sustainable Bioeconomy$gv. 14, n. 10, p. 1097-1116, 2022.
Download
Esconder MarcMostrar Marc Completo |
Registro original: |
Embrapa Meio Ambiente (CNPMA) |
|
Biblioteca |
ID |
Origem |
Tipo/Formato |
Classificação |
Cutter |
Registro |
Volume |
Status |
Fechar
|
Nenhum registro encontrado para a expressão de busca informada. |
|
|