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Registro Completo |
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Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Trigo. |
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Data corrente: |
07/12/2010 |
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Data da última atualização: |
27/09/2013 |
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Autoria: |
HAMMER, G. L.; WOODRUFF, D. R.; ROBINSON, J. B. |
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Afiliação: |
Queensland Department of Primary Industries; Queensland Department of Primary Industries; New South Wales Department of Agriculture. |
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Título: |
Effects of climatic variability and possible climatic change on reliability of wheat cropping - A modelling approach. |
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Ano de publicação: |
1987 |
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Fonte/Imprenta: |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Amsterdam, v. 41, n. 1-2, p. 123-142, 1987. |
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Idioma: |
Inglês |
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Conteúdo: |
Wheat cropping in the northern sector of the Australian wheat belt has been expanding into a region with a more marginal moisture regime and a more variable climate than in the established cropping regions. To provide a sound basis for land use assessment, the likely reliability of cropping in this region was examined. Reliability included the likelihood of planting a wheat crop in any year and the likely yield of planted crops. Simulation studies, using an appropriate model of the cropping system and long-term rainfall records (92-year period), were used to derive yield probability distributions for sites throughout the region. The main features of the cropping system model developed are outlined. The yield probability distributions and associated economic analyses indicated that expansion of wheat cropping in this region was likely. Trends in simulated yield sequences were compared with analyses of factors associated with recent climatic change. Similarities of patterns suggested an association of rainfall and yield trends with climate forcing factors. Implications of this association are discussed. A better understanding of the action of the climate forcing factors is required before possible climatic change can be included in determining reliability of cropping. |
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Palavras-Chave: |
Variabilidade climática. |
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Thesagro: |
Trigo. |
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Categoria do assunto: |
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Marc: |
LEADER 01834naa a2200169 a 4500
001 1869074
005 2013-09-27
008 1987 bl --- 0-- u #d
100 1 $aHAMMER, G. L.
245 $aEffects of climatic variability and possible climatic change on reliability of wheat cropping - A modelling approach.
260 $c1987
520 $aWheat cropping in the northern sector of the Australian wheat belt has been expanding into a region with a more marginal moisture regime and a more variable climate than in the established cropping regions. To provide a sound basis for land use assessment, the likely reliability of cropping in this region was examined. Reliability included the likelihood of planting a wheat crop in any year and the likely yield of planted crops. Simulation studies, using an appropriate model of the cropping system and long-term rainfall records (92-year period), were used to derive yield probability distributions for sites throughout the region. The main features of the cropping system model developed are outlined. The yield probability distributions and associated economic analyses indicated that expansion of wheat cropping in this region was likely. Trends in simulated yield sequences were compared with analyses of factors associated with recent climatic change. Similarities of patterns suggested an association of rainfall and yield trends with climate forcing factors. Implications of this association are discussed. A better understanding of the action of the climate forcing factors is required before possible climatic change can be included in determining reliability of cropping.
650 $aTrigo
653 $aVariabilidade climática
700 1 $aWOODRUFF, D. R.
700 1 $aROBINSON, J. B.
773 $tAgricultural and Forest Meteorology, Amsterdam$gv. 41, n. 1-2, p. 123-142, 1987.
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Registro original: |
Embrapa Trigo (CNPT) |
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