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Registro Completo |
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Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Unidades Centrais. |
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Data corrente: |
22/07/2022 |
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Data da última atualização: |
25/07/2022 |
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Autoria: |
MARCIAL, E. C.; SCHNEIDERB, E. R.; PIO, M. J.; LEAL, R. M.; FRONZAGLIA, T.; GIMENE, M. |
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Afiliação: |
ELAINE COUTINHO MARCIAL, Universidade Católica de Brasília; EDUARDO RODRIGUES SCHNEIDERB, Universidade Católica de Brasília; MARCELLO JOSÉ PIO, Universidade Católica de Brasilia; RODRIGO MENDES LEAL, Universidade Católica de Brasilia; THOMAZ FRONZAGLIA, SIRE; MÁRCIO GIMENE, Universidade Católica de Brasilia. |
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Título: |
Post-COVID-19 scenarios: a method for moments of crisis. |
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Ano de publicação: |
2022 |
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Fonte/Imprenta: |
Futures, v. 142, 102996, 2022. |
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DOI: |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2022.102996 |
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Idioma: |
Inglês |
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Notas: |
Available online 14 July 2022, 102996. |
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Conteúdo: |
ABSTRACT - At the beginning of 2020, feelings of fear and uncertainty spread throughout the world after the novel coronavirus rapid propagation. The world was not ready to face such a situation. Countries implemented emergency measures to contain it, which included social distancing and shutting down the economy. Social and economic impacts were unpredictable. This manuscript aims to present the application of a remote scenario planning method that identifies threats, opportunities, and subsidies to a strategic evaluation in a short term. The main results identified 15 key trends, four critical uncertainties, four scenarios, ten opportunities, and 13 threats. They were debated and presented to some Brazilian organizations' decision-makers to help develop strategies to curb the aftermath of COVID-19. Our findings show that it is possible to use this agile method to build consistent and coherent scenarios that support the decision-making process. Part of the experts said that participating in the process was essential to comprehend it better. The process also contributed to their learning process and their organization on anticipatory strategy thinking concerning possible future. They agree that the scenarios were relevant, defiant, and plausible and incorporated meaningful events and real challenges to their organizations' strategy formulation or decision-making. |
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Palavras-Chave: |
COVID 19. |
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Categoria do assunto: |
-- |
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Marc: |
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024 7 $ahttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2022.102996$2DOI
100 1 $aMARCIAL, E. C.
245 $aPost-COVID-19 scenarios$ba method for moments of crisis.$h[electronic resource]
260 $c2022
500 $aAvailable online 14 July 2022, 102996.
520 $aABSTRACT - At the beginning of 2020, feelings of fear and uncertainty spread throughout the world after the novel coronavirus rapid propagation. The world was not ready to face such a situation. Countries implemented emergency measures to contain it, which included social distancing and shutting down the economy. Social and economic impacts were unpredictable. This manuscript aims to present the application of a remote scenario planning method that identifies threats, opportunities, and subsidies to a strategic evaluation in a short term. The main results identified 15 key trends, four critical uncertainties, four scenarios, ten opportunities, and 13 threats. They were debated and presented to some Brazilian organizations' decision-makers to help develop strategies to curb the aftermath of COVID-19. Our findings show that it is possible to use this agile method to build consistent and coherent scenarios that support the decision-making process. Part of the experts said that participating in the process was essential to comprehend it better. The process also contributed to their learning process and their organization on anticipatory strategy thinking concerning possible future. They agree that the scenarios were relevant, defiant, and plausible and incorporated meaningful events and real challenges to their organizations' strategy formulation or decision-making.
653 $aCOVID 19
700 1 $aSCHNEIDERB, E. R.
700 1 $aPIO, M. J.
700 1 $aLEAL, R. M.
700 1 $aFRONZAGLIA, T.
700 1 $aGIMENE, M.
773 $tFutures$gv. 142, 102996, 2022.
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| 2. |  | CROSSA, J.; MONTESINOS-LÓPEZ, O. A.; PÉREZ-RODRÍGUEZ, P.; COSTA-NETO, G.; FRITSCHE-NETO, R.; ORTIZ, R.; MARTINI, J. W. R.; LILLEMO, M.; MONTESINOS-LÓPEZ, A.; JARQUIN, D.; BRESEGHELLO, F.; CUEVAS, J.; RINCENT, R. Genome and environment based prediction models and methods of complex traits incorporating genotype × environment interaction. In: AHMADI, N.; BARTHOLOME, J. (ed.). Genomic prediction of complex traits: methods and protocols. New York: Humana Press, 2022. p. 245-283. (Methods in Molecular Biology).| Tipo: Capítulo em Livro Técnico-Científico |
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