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Registro Completo |
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Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Agricultura Digital. |
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Data corrente: |
03/11/2022 |
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Data da última atualização: |
03/11/2022 |
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Tipo da produção científica: |
Artigo em Periódico Indexado |
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Autoria: |
PORTALANZA, D.; HORGAN, F. G.; POHLMANN, V.; CUADRA, S. V.; TORRES-ULLOA, M.; ALAVA, E.; FERRAZ, S.; DURIGON, A. |
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Afiliação: |
DIEGO PORTALANZA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA; FINBARR G. HORGAN, ECOLAVERNA INTEGRAL RESTORATION ECOLOGY, UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA DEL MAULE, THE UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH; VALERIA POHLMANN, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE PELOTAS; SANTIAGO VIANNA CUADRA, CNPTIA; MALENA TORRES-ULLOA, ESCUELA SUPERIOR POLITÉCNICA DEL LITORAL; EDUARDO ALAVA, ESCUELA SUPERIOR POLITÉCNICA DEL LITORAL; SIMONE FERRAZ, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA; ANGELICA DURIGON, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA. |
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Título: |
Potential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'. |
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Ano de publicação: |
2022 |
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Fonte/Imprenta: |
Agriculture, v. 12, n. 1, 1828, Nov. 2022. |
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DOI: |
https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12111828 |
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Idioma: |
Inglês |
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Conteúdo: |
Abstract: Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the main staple food of more than 50% of the world´s population. However, global production may need to increase by more than 70% before 2050 to meet global food requirements despite increasing challenges due to environmental degradation, a changing climate, and extreme weather events. Rice production in Ecuador, mainly concentrated in lowland tropical plains, declined in recent years. In this paper, we aim to calibrate and validate KobayashÍ´s 'Very Simple Model' (VSM) and, using downscaled corrected climate data, to quantify the potential impact of climate change on rice yields for Ecuador´s two main rice-growing provinces. The negative impact is expected to be highest (up to -67%; 2946 tons) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, with a lower impact under RCP 2.6 (-36%; 1650 tons) yield reduction in the Guayas province. A positive impact on yield is predicted for Los Ríos Province (up to 9%; 161 tons) under RCP 8.5. These different impacts indicate the utility of fine-scale analyses using simple models to make predictions that are relevant to regional production scenarios. Our prediction of possible changes in rice productivity can help policymakers define a variety of requirements to meet the demands of a changing climate. |
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Palavras-Chave: |
Agricultural modeling; Modelagem agrícola; Mudanças climáticas; RCPs; Yield gaps. |
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Thesagro: |
Oryza Sativa. |
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Thesaurus Nal: |
Climate change; Rice. |
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Categoria do assunto: |
-- |
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URL: |
https://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/doc/1147973/1/AP-Potential-impact-2022.pdf
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Marc: |
LEADER 02221naa a2200313 a 4500
001 2147973
005 2022-11-03
008 2022 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d
024 7 $ahttps://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12111828$2DOI
100 1 $aPORTALANZA, D.
245 $aPotential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'.$h[electronic resource]
260 $c2022
520 $aAbstract: Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the main staple food of more than 50% of the world´s population. However, global production may need to increase by more than 70% before 2050 to meet global food requirements despite increasing challenges due to environmental degradation, a changing climate, and extreme weather events. Rice production in Ecuador, mainly concentrated in lowland tropical plains, declined in recent years. In this paper, we aim to calibrate and validate KobayashÍ´s 'Very Simple Model' (VSM) and, using downscaled corrected climate data, to quantify the potential impact of climate change on rice yields for Ecuador´s two main rice-growing provinces. The negative impact is expected to be highest (up to -67%; 2946 tons) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, with a lower impact under RCP 2.6 (-36%; 1650 tons) yield reduction in the Guayas province. A positive impact on yield is predicted for Los Ríos Province (up to 9%; 161 tons) under RCP 8.5. These different impacts indicate the utility of fine-scale analyses using simple models to make predictions that are relevant to regional production scenarios. Our prediction of possible changes in rice productivity can help policymakers define a variety of requirements to meet the demands of a changing climate.
650 $aClimate change
650 $aRice
650 $aOryza Sativa
653 $aAgricultural modeling
653 $aModelagem agrícola
653 $aMudanças climáticas
653 $aRCPs
653 $aYield gaps
700 1 $aHORGAN, F. G.
700 1 $aPOHLMANN, V.
700 1 $aCUADRA, S. V.
700 1 $aTORRES-ULLOA, M.
700 1 $aALAVA, E.
700 1 $aFERRAZ, S.
700 1 $aDURIGON, A.
773 $tAgriculture$gv. 12, n. 1, 1828, Nov. 2022.
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Registro original: |
Embrapa Agricultura Digital (CNPTIA) |
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Registro Completo
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Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Unidades Centrais. |
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Data corrente: |
20/04/2011 |
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Data da última atualização: |
11/12/2017 |
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Autoria: |
SANTOS, A. I.; RIBEIRO, R. P.; VARGAS, L.; MORA, F.; ALEXANDRE FILHO, L.; FORNARI, D. C.; OLIVEIRA, S. N. de. |
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Afiliação: |
Alexandra Inês Santos, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Departamento de Zootecnia; Ricardo Pereira Ribeiro, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Departamento de Zootecnia; Lauro Vargas, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Departamento de Zootecnia; Freddy Mora, Universidad de Concepción, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales; Luiz Alexandre Filho, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Departamento de Zootecnia; Darci Carlos Fornari, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Departamento de Zootecnia; Sheila Nogueira de Oliveira, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Departamento de Zootecnia. |
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Título: |
Bayesian genetic parameters for body weight and survival of Nile tilapia farmed in Brazil. |
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Ano de publicação: |
2011 |
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Fonte/Imprenta: |
Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira, Brasília, DF, v. 46, n. 1, p. 33-43, jan. 2011. |
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Idioma: |
Inglês |
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Notas: |
Título em português: Parâmetros genéticos bayesianos para peso corporal e sobrevivência de tilápias-do-nilo cultivadas no Brasil. |
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Conteúdo: |
The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for survival and weight of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), farmed in cages and ponds in Brazil, and to predict genetic gain under different scenarios. Survival was recorded as a binary response (dead or alive), during harvest time in the 2008 grow-out period. Genetic parameters were estimated using a Bayesian mixed linear-threshold animal model via Gibbs sampling. The breeding population consisted of 2,912 individual fish, which were analyzed together with the pedigree of 5,394 fish. The heritabilities estimates, with 95% posterior credible intervals, for tagging weight, harvest weight and survival were 0.17 (0.09?0.27), 0.21 (0.12?0.32) and 0.32 (0.22?0.44), respectively. Credible intervals show a 95% probability that the true genetic correlations were in a favourable direction. The selection for weight has a positive impact on survival. Estimated genetic gain was high when selecting for harvest weight (5.07%), and indirect gain for tagging weight (2.17%) and survival (2.03%) were also considerable. |
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Palavras-Chave: |
Correlação; Fish genetic improvement; Gibbs sampling; GIFT strain; Herdabilidade; Linhagem GIFT; Mostragem de Gibbs. |
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Thesagro: |
Melhoramento genético animal; Oreochromis Niloticus. |
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Thesaurus NAL: |
Correlation; Heritability. |
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Categoria do assunto: |
-- |
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URL: |
https://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/item/168641/1/Bayesian-genetic-parameters.pdf
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Marc: |
LEADER 02183naa a2200337 a 4500
001 1886510
005 2017-12-11
008 2011 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d
100 1 $aSANTOS, A. I.
245 $aBayesian genetic parameters for body weight and survival of Nile tilapia farmed in Brazil.
260 $c2011
500 $aTítulo em português: Parâmetros genéticos bayesianos para peso corporal e sobrevivência de tilápias-do-nilo cultivadas no Brasil.
520 $aThe objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for survival and weight of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), farmed in cages and ponds in Brazil, and to predict genetic gain under different scenarios. Survival was recorded as a binary response (dead or alive), during harvest time in the 2008 grow-out period. Genetic parameters were estimated using a Bayesian mixed linear-threshold animal model via Gibbs sampling. The breeding population consisted of 2,912 individual fish, which were analyzed together with the pedigree of 5,394 fish. The heritabilities estimates, with 95% posterior credible intervals, for tagging weight, harvest weight and survival were 0.17 (0.09?0.27), 0.21 (0.12?0.32) and 0.32 (0.22?0.44), respectively. Credible intervals show a 95% probability that the true genetic correlations were in a favourable direction. The selection for weight has a positive impact on survival. Estimated genetic gain was high when selecting for harvest weight (5.07%), and indirect gain for tagging weight (2.17%) and survival (2.03%) were also considerable.
650 $aCorrelation
650 $aHeritability
650 $aMelhoramento genético animal
650 $aOreochromis Niloticus
653 $aCorrelação
653 $aFish genetic improvement
653 $aGibbs sampling
653 $aGIFT strain
653 $aHerdabilidade
653 $aLinhagem GIFT
653 $aMostragem de Gibbs
700 1 $aRIBEIRO, R. P.
700 1 $aVARGAS, L.
700 1 $aMORA, F.
700 1 $aALEXANDRE FILHO, L.
700 1 $aFORNARI, D. C.
700 1 $aOLIVEIRA, S. N. de
773 $tPesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira, Brasília, DF$gv. 46, n. 1, p. 33-43, jan. 2011.
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