Data/hora: 04/06/2024 03:50:03

Biblioteca(s): | Embrapa Agroenergia.
Data corrente: | 02/07/2020
Data da última atualização: | 06/07/2020
Autoria: | ZILLI, M.; SCARABELLO, M.; SOTERRONI, A. C.; VALIN, H.; MOSNIER, A.; LECLÈRE, D.; HAVLÍK, P.; KRAXNER, F.; LOPES, M. A.; RAMOS, F. M.
Afiliação: | Marcia Zilli, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Brasil); Marluce Scarabello, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Brasil); Aline C. Soterroni, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espacieis (Brasil); Hugo Valin, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Aline Mosnier, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; David Leclère, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Petr Havlík, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Florian Kraxner, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; MAURICIO ANTONIO LOPES, CNPAE; Fernando M. Ramos, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
Título: | The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture.
Ano de publicação: | 2020
Fonte/Imprenta: | Science of the Total Environment, v. 740, n. 139384, 2020.
ISSN: | 0048-9697
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139384
Idioma: | Inglês
Conteúdo: | Brazilian agricultural production provides a significant fraction of the food consumed globally, with the country among the top exporters of soybeans, sugar, and beef. However, current advances in Brazilian agriculture can be directly impacted by climate change and resulting biophysical effects. Here, we quantify these impacts until 2050 using GLOBIOM-Brazil, a global partial equilibrium model of the competition for land use between agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy that includes various refinements reflecting Brazil's specificities. For the first time, projec- tions of future agricultural areas and production are based on future crop yields provided by two Global Gridded Crop Models (EPIC and LPJmL). The climate change forcing is included through changes in climatic variables projected by five Global Climate Models in two emission pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) participating in the ISIMIP initiative. This ensemble of twenty scenarios permits accessing the robustness of the results. When com- pared to the baseline scenario, GLOBIOM-Brazil scenarios suggest a decrease in soybeans and corn production, mainly in the Matopiba region in the Northern Cerrado, and southward displacement of agricultural production to near-subtropical and subtropical regions of the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biomes.
Palavras-Chave: | Matopiba.
Thesagro: | Cana de Açúcar; Milho; Mudança Climática; Produto; Soja; Uso da Terra.
Thesaurus Nal: | Cane sugar; Climate change; Corn products; Land use; Products and commodities; Soybean products; Soybeans.
Categoria do assunto: | --
Registro original: | Embrapa Agroenergia (CNPAE)
Exemplares: | CNPAE - (3659-1) - UPC - AP - DD -  -  -  - DIS