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Registro Completo |
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Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Meio Ambiente. |
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Data corrente: |
21/06/2007 |
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Data da última atualização: |
29/03/2023 |
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Tipo da produção científica: |
Artigo em Periódico Indexado |
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Autoria: |
MAIA, A. de H. N.; DOURADO NETO, D. |
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Afiliação: |
ALINE DE HOLANDA NUNES MAIA, CNPMA; DURVAL DOURADO NETO, USP/ESALQ. |
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Título: |
Probabilistic tools for assessment of pest resistance risk associated to insecticidal transgenic crops. |
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Ano de publicação: |
2004 |
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Fonte/Imprenta: |
Scientia Agricola, Piracicaba, v. 61, n. 5, p. 481-485, set./out. 2004. |
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Idioma: |
Inglês |
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Conteúdo: |
One of the main risks associated to transgenic crops expressing Bacilliis thuringiensis (Bt) toxins is the evolution of pest resistance. The adoption of Bt crops requires environmental risk assessment that includes resistance risk estimation, useful for definition of resistance management strategies aiming to delay resistance evolution. In this context, resistance risk is defined as the probability of the Bt toxin resistance allele frequency (RFreq) exceeding a criticai value (CriticalFreq). Mathematical simulation inodeis have been used to estimate (RFreq) over pest generations. In 1998, Caprio developed a deterministic simulation model with few parameters that can be used to obtain RFreq point estimates from point information about model parameters and decision variables involved in that process. In this work, the resistance risk was estimated using Caprio's model, by incorporating uncertainty to the resistance allele initial frequency (InitialFreq). The main objective was to evaluate the influence of different probability distribution functions on the risk estimates. The simulation results showed that the influence of InitialFreq input distributions on the risk estimates changes along pest generations. The risk estimates considering input Normal distribution for InitialFreq are similar to those ones obtained considering Triangular distribution if their variances are equal. The use of Uniform distribution instead the Normal or Triangular due to the lack of information about InitialFreq leads to an overestimation of risk estimates for the initial generations and sub estimation for the generations after the one for which the criticai frequency is achieved. MenosOne of the main risks associated to transgenic crops expressing Bacilliis thuringiensis (Bt) toxins is the evolution of pest resistance. The adoption of Bt crops requires environmental risk assessment that includes resistance risk estimation, useful for definition of resistance management strategies aiming to delay resistance evolution. In this context, resistance risk is defined as the probability of the Bt toxin resistance allele frequency (RFreq) exceeding a criticai value (CriticalFreq). Mathematical simulation inodeis have been used to estimate (RFreq) over pest generations. In 1998, Caprio developed a deterministic simulation model with few parameters that can be used to obtain RFreq point estimates from point information about model parameters and decision variables involved in that process. In this work, the resistance risk was estimated using Caprio's model, by incorporating uncertainty to the resistance allele initial frequency (InitialFreq). The main objective was to evaluate the influence of different probability distribution functions on the risk estimates. The simulation results showed that the influence of InitialFreq input distributions on the risk estimates changes along pest generations. The risk estimates considering input Normal distribution for InitialFreq are similar to those ones obtained considering Triangular distribution if their variances are equal. The use of Uniform distribution instead the Normal or Triangular due to the lack of information abou... Mostrar Tudo |
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Palavras-Chave: |
Avaliação de risco ambiental; Bacilus thuringiensis; Culturas transgênicas; Estimação. |
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Thesagro: |
Biossegurança; Modelo de Simulação; Modelo Matemático; Resistência; Variedade Resistente. |
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Categoria do assunto: |
-- |
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Marc: |
LEADER 02464naa a2200241 a 4500
001 1015487
005 2023-03-29
008 2004 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d
100 1 $aMAIA, A. de H. N.
245 $aProbabilistic tools for assessment of pest resistance risk associated to insecticidal transgenic crops.$h[electronic resource]
260 $c2004
520 $aOne of the main risks associated to transgenic crops expressing Bacilliis thuringiensis (Bt) toxins is the evolution of pest resistance. The adoption of Bt crops requires environmental risk assessment that includes resistance risk estimation, useful for definition of resistance management strategies aiming to delay resistance evolution. In this context, resistance risk is defined as the probability of the Bt toxin resistance allele frequency (RFreq) exceeding a criticai value (CriticalFreq). Mathematical simulation inodeis have been used to estimate (RFreq) over pest generations. In 1998, Caprio developed a deterministic simulation model with few parameters that can be used to obtain RFreq point estimates from point information about model parameters and decision variables involved in that process. In this work, the resistance risk was estimated using Caprio's model, by incorporating uncertainty to the resistance allele initial frequency (InitialFreq). The main objective was to evaluate the influence of different probability distribution functions on the risk estimates. The simulation results showed that the influence of InitialFreq input distributions on the risk estimates changes along pest generations. The risk estimates considering input Normal distribution for InitialFreq are similar to those ones obtained considering Triangular distribution if their variances are equal. The use of Uniform distribution instead the Normal or Triangular due to the lack of information about InitialFreq leads to an overestimation of risk estimates for the initial generations and sub estimation for the generations after the one for which the criticai frequency is achieved.
650 $aBiossegurança
650 $aModelo de Simulação
650 $aModelo Matemático
650 $aResistência
650 $aVariedade Resistente
653 $aAvaliação de risco ambiental
653 $aBacilus thuringiensis
653 $aCulturas transgênicas
653 $aEstimação
700 1 $aDOURADO NETO, D.
773 $tScientia Agricola, Piracicaba$gv. 61, n. 5, p. 481-485, set./out. 2004.
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Embrapa Meio Ambiente (CNPMA) |
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| 80. |  | MAIA, A. de H. N.; DEL PONTE, E. M.; ESKER, P. D.; GODOY, C. V. Análise exploratória e seleção de ensaios para meta-análise de coeficientes de regressão linear. In: REUNIÃO ANUAL DA REGIÃO BRASILEIRA DA SOCIEDADE INTERNACIONAL DE BIOMETRIA - RBRAS, 54.; SIMPÓSIO DE ESTATÍSTICA APLICADA À EXPERIMENTAÇÃO AGRONÔMICA - SEAGRO, 13., 2009, São Carlos, SP. Anais.... São Carlos: UFSCar: Embrapa Pecuária Sudeste, 2009. 1 CD-ROM. N. 438. 5 p.| Tipo: Artigo em Anais de Congresso |
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