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 | Acesso ao texto completo restrito à biblioteca da Embrapa Agricultura Digital. Para informações adicionais entre em contato com cnptia.biblioteca@embrapa.br. |
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Registro Completo |
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Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Agricultura Digital. |
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Data corrente: |
16/09/2011 |
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Data da última atualização: |
13/01/2020 |
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Tipo da produção científica: |
Artigo em Periódico Indexado |
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Autoria: |
CARVALHO, J. R. P. de; ASSAD, E. D.; PINTO, H. S. |
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Afiliação: |
JOSÉ RUY PORTO DE CARVALHO, CNPTIA; EDUARDO DELGADO ASSAD, CNPTIA; HILTON SILVEIRA PINTO, Cepagri/Unicamp. |
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Título: |
Kalman filter and correction of the temperatures estimated by PRECIS model. |
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Ano de publicação: |
2011 |
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Fonte/Imprenta: |
Atmospheric Research, Amsterdam, v. 102, n. 1-2, p. 218-226, 2011. |
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ISBN: |
10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.07.007 |
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Idioma: |
Inglês |
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Conteúdo: |
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the estimation the monthly mean temperature simulated by the PRECIS model-scenarios A2 and B2 of the IPCC-for Brazilian regions and to develop a Kalman filter to correct the systematic errors of the model for the months of January to June 2010. With a regionalized model, PRECIS aims to reproduce the main features of the climate in complex terrains. The temperature estimates for January to June 2010 are based on linear regression of PRECIS simulations in each pixel of the domain for two time periods, 1961-1990 and 2070-2100. These initial estimates are adapted to 1142 observing stations by a correction using the vertical temperature gradient of the Standard Atmosphere and the difference between model and real topography. The analysis was performed using monthly observed mean temperature data from meteorological stations, along with 1142 simulated data. The PRECIS model with systematic errors was ameliorated by the application of the filter resulting in an improved mean temperature prediction of 66% above the mean square error for the dry months and above 49% for the wet months, for both scenarios under study. At the half-way point, the improvement was 68% for the A2 scenario and 69% for scenario B2. |
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Palavras-Chave: |
Filtro de Kalman; Modelo PRECIS; Previsão climática. |
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Thesagro: |
Estatística Agrícola. |
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Thesaurus Nal: |
Agricultural statistics; Models; Weather forecasting. |
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Categoria do assunto: |
X Pesquisa, Tecnologia e Engenharia |
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Marc: |
LEADER 01966naa a2200229 a 4500
001 1900699
005 2020-01-13
008 2011 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d
100 1 $aCARVALHO, J. R. P. de
245 $aKalman filter and correction of the temperatures estimated by PRECIS model.$h[electronic resource]
260 $c2011
520 $aThe purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the estimation the monthly mean temperature simulated by the PRECIS model-scenarios A2 and B2 of the IPCC-for Brazilian regions and to develop a Kalman filter to correct the systematic errors of the model for the months of January to June 2010. With a regionalized model, PRECIS aims to reproduce the main features of the climate in complex terrains. The temperature estimates for January to June 2010 are based on linear regression of PRECIS simulations in each pixel of the domain for two time periods, 1961-1990 and 2070-2100. These initial estimates are adapted to 1142 observing stations by a correction using the vertical temperature gradient of the Standard Atmosphere and the difference between model and real topography. The analysis was performed using monthly observed mean temperature data from meteorological stations, along with 1142 simulated data. The PRECIS model with systematic errors was ameliorated by the application of the filter resulting in an improved mean temperature prediction of 66% above the mean square error for the dry months and above 49% for the wet months, for both scenarios under study. At the half-way point, the improvement was 68% for the A2 scenario and 69% for scenario B2.
650 $aAgricultural statistics
650 $aModels
650 $aWeather forecasting
650 $aEstatística Agrícola
653 $aFiltro de Kalman
653 $aModelo PRECIS
653 $aPrevisão climática
700 1 $aASSAD, E. D.
700 1 $aPINTO, H. S.
773 $tAtmospheric Research, Amsterdam$gv. 102, n. 1-2, p. 218-226, 2011.
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Registro original: |
Embrapa Agricultura Digital (CNPTIA) |
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| 94. |  | SILVEIRA, P. M. da; STEINMETZ, S.; GUIMARÃES, C. M.; AIDAR, H.; CARVALHO, J. R. P. de. Lâminas de água e turnos de rega na cultura do feijoeiro de inverno. Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira, Brasília, DF, v. 19, n. 2, p. 219-223, fev. 1984.| Tipo: Artigo em Periódico Indexado |
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| 100. | | FAGERIA, N. K.; BALIGAR, V. C.; WRIGHT, R. J.; CARVALHO, J. R. P. de. Response of upland and lowland rice to potassium fertilizer in Brazil. Potash Review, Subject 6, Cereals, Bern, n. 2, p. 1-3, 1991.| Tipo: Artigo em Periódico Indexado |
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