02241nam a2200253 a 450000100080000000500110000800800410001902400330006010000130009324501570010626001660026352013290042965000190175865000200177765000260179765000250182365000160184865000240186465000250188865000180191370000250193170000120195670000190196821506692023-01-27       2022    bl uuuu     u00u1 u    #d7 a10.22004/ag.econ.3225602DOI1 aWANG, Z.  aClimate change, irrigation expansion and impacts on agriculture productionban integrated multi-scale analysis of Brazil by 2050.h[electronic resource]  aIn: AGRICULTURAL & APPLIED ECONOMICS ASSOCIATION ANNUAL MEETING, 2022, Anaheim. [Proceedings...]. Milwaukee: Agricultural and Applied Economics Associationc2022  aThis paper aims at enhancing climate change´s impact on irrigation expansion and crop production in Brazil, by answers research questions below: Considering the impact on crop yield and water supply, how would climate change influence irrigation area and pattern in Brazil? What is the possible range of those impacts given uncertainties in future climate scenarios and climate model simulation? Will the climate change drive Brazil to be more intensive or extensive in land use, and what is its implication on environment and sustainability? With precipitation change and demand growth, irrigated area has shown increasing trend in Brazil since mid-20 century. When projecting to 2050 with climate change´s impact on yield and irrigation water supply, under the climate scenario RCP8.5 the majority of Brazil will experience irrigation water supply shortage, reducing in reduction in irrigated area except Ceara. Under the milder climate change scenario RCP2.6, high uncertainty is found across climate model projections on yield, irrigation adoption and crop output, on state level irrigation is projected to show expansion in Sao Paulo and reduction in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. The negative impact on irrigation for warmer climate indicates the importance of future research on climate adaption strategies.  aClimate change  aCrop production  aEconomic productivity  aEnvironmental impact  aIrrigação  aMudança Climática  aProdução Agrícola  aProdutividade1 aMARTHA JUNIOR, G. B.1 aLIU, J.1 aLIMA, C. Z. de