Data/hora: 14/06/2024 14:45:23

Biblioteca(s): | Embrapa Agricultura Digital; Embrapa Meio Ambiente.
Data corrente: | 28/07/2022
Data da última atualização: | 14/07/2023
Autoria: | VIANNA, M. S.; WILLIAMS, K. W.; LITTLETON, E. W.; CABRAL, O. M. R.; CERRI, C. E. P.; DE JONG VAN LIER, Q.; MARTHEWS, T. R.; HAYMAN, G.; ZERI, M.; CUADRA, S. V.; CHALLINOR, A. J.; MARIN, F. R.; GALDOS, M. V.
Afiliação: | University of Leeds, INRES/University of Bonn; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter; University of Exeter; University of Exeter; OSVALDO MACHADO RODRIGUES CABRAL, CNPMA; ESALQ/USP; CENA/USP; Centre for Ecology and Hydro-logy, Wallingford; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford; CEMADEN, São José dos Campos; SANTIAGO VIANNA CUADRA, CNPTIA; University of Leeds; ESALQ/USP; University of Leeds.
Título: | Improving the representation of sugarcane crop in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) model for climate impact assessment.
Ano de publicação: | 2022
Fonte/Imprenta: | GCB Bioenergy: Bioproducts for a Sustainable Bioeconomy, v. 14, n. 10, p. 1097-1116, 2022.
ISSN: | 1757-1707
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12989
Idioma: | Inglês
Conteúdo: | Abstract. Bioenergy from sugarcane production is considered a key mitigation strategy for global warming. Improving its representation in land surface models is important to further understand the interactions between climate and bioenergy production, supporting accurate climate projections and decision-making. This study aimed to calibrate and evaluate the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for climate impact assessments in sugarcane. A dataset composed of soil moisture, water and carbon fluxes and biomass measurements from field experiments across Brazil was used to calibrate and evaluate JULES-crop and JULES-BE parametrisations. The ability to predict the spatiotemporal variability of sugarcane yields and the impact of climate change was also tested at five Brazilian microregions. Parameters related to sugarcane allometry, crop growth and development were derived and tested for JULES-crop and JULES-BE, together with the response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, temperature and drought (CTW-response). Both parametrisations showed comparable performance to other sugarcane dynamic models, with an RMSE of 6.75 and 6.05 t ha-1 for stalk dry matter for JULES-crop and JULES-BE, respectively. The parametrisations were also able to replicate the average yield patterns observed in the five microregions over 30 years when the yield gap factors were taken into account, with the correlation (r) between simulated and observed interannual variability of yields ranging from 0.33 to 0.56. An overall small positive trend was found in future yield projections of sugarcane using the new calibrations, with exception of the Jataí mesoregion which showed a clear negative trend for the SSP5 scenario from the year 2070 to 2100. Our simulations showed that an abrupt negative impact on sugarcane yields is expected if daytime temperatures above 35 oC become more frequent. The newly calibrated version of JULES can be applied regionally and globally to help understand the interactions between climate and bioenergy production.
Palavras-Chave: | Avaliações de impacto climático; Calibração; Climate impact; Impacto climático; Joint UK Land Environment Simulator; JULES model; Land Surface Models; Modelagem; Mudanças climáticas; Produção de bioenergia; Projeção futura do clima.
Thesagro: | Bioenergia; Cana de Açúcar; Simulação.
Thesaurus Nal: | Bioenergy; Calibration; Climate; Climate change; Models; Sugarcane.
Categoria do assunto: | P Recursos Naturais, Ciências Ambientais e da Terra
Registro original: | Embrapa Meio Ambiente (CNPMA)

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