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Registro Completo |
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Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Amazônia Ocidental; Embrapa Florestas. |
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Data corrente: |
02/05/2024 |
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Data da última atualização: |
02/05/2024 |
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Tipo da produção científica: |
Artigo em Periódico Indexado |
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Autoria: |
MORAIS, I. L. L. de; LIMA, A. A. de; SANTOS, I. N. L. dos; MENESES, C.; SILVA, R. F. da; LOPES, R.; FERREYRA RAMOS, S. L.; AGUIAR, A. V. de; WREGE, M. S.; LOPES, M. T. G. |
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Afiliação: |
INGRID LANA LIMA DE MORAIS, FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF AMAZONAS; ALEXANDRA AMARO DE LIMA, INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AND EDUCATION GALILEO OF AMAZON; IVINNE NARA LOBATO DOS SANTOS, FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF AMAZONAS; CARLOS MENESES, STATE UNIVERSITY OF PARAÍBA; ROGÉRIO FREIRE DA SILVA, STATE UNIVERSITY OF PARAÍBA; RICARDO LOPES, CPAA; SANTIAGO LINORIO FERREYRA RAMOS, FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF AMAZONAS; ANANDA VIRGINIA DE AGUIAR, CNPF; MARCOS SILVEIRA WREGE, CNPF; MARIA TERESA GOMES LOPES, FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF AMAZONAS. |
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Título: |
Climate change impact on the distribution of forest species in the Brazilian Amazon. |
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Ano de publicação: |
2024 |
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Fonte/Imprenta: |
Sustainability, v. 16, n. 8, art. 3458, 2024. |
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DOI: |
https://doi.org/10.3390/su16083458 |
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Idioma: |
Inglês |
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Conteúdo: |
Studies using ecological niche models highlight the vulnerability of forest species to climate change. This work aimed to analyze the distribution of timber species Aspidosperma desmanthum, Cariniana micranta, Clarisia racemosa, Couratari oblongifolia, and Vouchysia guianensis, which are targets of deforestation, to predict the impacts of climate change and identify areas for their conservation in the Amazon. For this purpose, 37 environmental variables were used, including climatic and edaphic factors. The models were fitted using five algorithms, and their performance was evaluated by the metrics Area Under the Curve (AUC), True Skill Statistic, and Sorensen Index. The deforestation analysis was conducted using data accumulated over a period of 14 years. The study indicated that under the most pessimistic predictions, considering continued high emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the use of fossil fuels, SSP5–8.5, potential habitat loss for the studied species was more significant. Analyses of the species show that the Western Amazon has a greater climatic suitability area for the conservation of its genetic resources. Further study of the accumulated deforestation over 14 years showed a reduction in area for all species. Therefore, in situ conservation policies and deforestation reduction are recommended for the perpetuation of the analyzed forest species. |
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Palavras-Chave: |
Conservation; Niche modeling. |
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Thesaurus Nal: |
Climate change. |
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Categoria do assunto: |
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K Ciência Florestal e Produtos de Origem Vegetal |
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URL: |
https://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/doc/1164066/1/Climate-Change.pdf
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Marc: |
LEADER 02204naa a2200277 a 4500
001 2164066
005 2024-05-02
008 2024 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d
024 7 $ahttps://doi.org/10.3390/su16083458$2DOI
100 1 $aMORAIS, I. L. L. de
245 $aClimate change impact on the distribution of forest species in the Brazilian Amazon.$h[electronic resource]
260 $c2024
520 $aStudies using ecological niche models highlight the vulnerability of forest species to climate change. This work aimed to analyze the distribution of timber species Aspidosperma desmanthum, Cariniana micranta, Clarisia racemosa, Couratari oblongifolia, and Vouchysia guianensis, which are targets of deforestation, to predict the impacts of climate change and identify areas for their conservation in the Amazon. For this purpose, 37 environmental variables were used, including climatic and edaphic factors. The models were fitted using five algorithms, and their performance was evaluated by the metrics Area Under the Curve (AUC), True Skill Statistic, and Sorensen Index. The deforestation analysis was conducted using data accumulated over a period of 14 years. The study indicated that under the most pessimistic predictions, considering continued high emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the use of fossil fuels, SSP5–8.5, potential habitat loss for the studied species was more significant. Analyses of the species show that the Western Amazon has a greater climatic suitability area for the conservation of its genetic resources. Further study of the accumulated deforestation over 14 years showed a reduction in area for all species. Therefore, in situ conservation policies and deforestation reduction are recommended for the perpetuation of the analyzed forest species.
650 $aClimate change
653 $aConservation
653 $aNiche modeling
700 1 $aLIMA, A. A. de
700 1 $aSANTOS, I. N. L. dos
700 1 $aMENESES, C.
700 1 $aSILVA, R. F. da
700 1 $aLOPES, R.
700 1 $aFERREYRA RAMOS, S. L.
700 1 $aAGUIAR, A. V. de
700 1 $aWREGE, M. S.
700 1 $aLOPES, M. T. G.
773 $tSustainability$gv. 16, n. 8, art. 3458, 2024.
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Embrapa Amazônia Ocidental (CPAA) |
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