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 | Acesso ao texto completo restrito à biblioteca da Embrapa Meio Ambiente. Para informações adicionais entre em contato com cnpma.biblioteca@embrapa.br. |
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Registro Completo |
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Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Meio Ambiente. |
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Data corrente: |
03/01/2018 |
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Data da última atualização: |
24/02/2023 |
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Tipo da produção científica: |
Artigo em Periódico Indexado |
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Autoria: |
COELHO, C. A. S.; FIRPO, M. A. F.; MAIA, A. de H. N.; MACLACHLAN, C. |
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Afiliação: |
CAIO AUGUSTO SANTOS COELHO, INPE; MARI ANDREA FELDMAN FIRPO, INPE; ALINE DE HOLANDA NUNES MAIA, CNPMA; CRAIG MACLACHLAN, Met Office Hadley Centre. |
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Título: |
Exploring the feasibility of empirical, dynamical and combined probabilistic rainy season onset forecasts for São Paulo, Brazil. |
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Ano de publicação: |
2017 |
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Fonte/Imprenta: |
International Journal of Climatology, v. 37, p. 398-411, 2017. Supplement 1. |
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DOI: |
10.1002/joc.5010 |
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Idioma: |
Inglês |
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Conteúdo: |
This study investigates the feasibility and presents an assessment of probabilistic rainy season onset forecasts for São Paulo, Brazil, located in a region with a well-defined wet season from mid-austral spring (October) to austral autumn (March/April). The probabilistic forecasts were produced with (1) a simple empirical Cox-regression model using July Niño-3 index as predictor, (2) the dynamical coupled atmosphere-land-surface-ocean-sea-ice model used in the UK Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5) and (3) a procedure that combines the empirical and dynamical model onset probabilistic forecasts. The probabilistic forecast assessment was performed over the 1996?2009 retrospective forecast period for the event rainy season onset earlier (or later) than the historical (mean) onset date. The three investigated approaches resulted in similar discrimination ability of around 80%, which represents the probability of the probabilistic forecasts correctly distinguishing earlier from a later than mean onsets, suggesting good potential for rainy season onset forecasts for São Paulo. The robustness of this assessment for an extended period (longer than 1996?2009) and for a region (20 ? S, 25 ? S, 45 ? W, 55 ? W) that includes the city of São Paulo was checked, reinforcing the validity of the obtained results at both local and regional scales. |
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Thesagro: |
Chuva; Previsão do tempo. |
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Thesaurus Nal: |
Probabilistic models; Weather forecasting; Wet season. |
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Categoria do assunto: |
X Pesquisa, Tecnologia e Engenharia |
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Marc: |
LEADER 02120naa a2200229 a 4500
001 2084078
005 2023-02-24
008 2017 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d
024 7 $a10.1002/joc.5010$2DOI
100 1 $aCOELHO, C. A. S.
245 $aExploring the feasibility of empirical, dynamical and combined probabilistic rainy season onset forecasts for São Paulo, Brazil.$h[electronic resource]
260 $c2017
520 $aThis study investigates the feasibility and presents an assessment of probabilistic rainy season onset forecasts for São Paulo, Brazil, located in a region with a well-defined wet season from mid-austral spring (October) to austral autumn (March/April). The probabilistic forecasts were produced with (1) a simple empirical Cox-regression model using July Niño-3 index as predictor, (2) the dynamical coupled atmosphere-land-surface-ocean-sea-ice model used in the UK Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5) and (3) a procedure that combines the empirical and dynamical model onset probabilistic forecasts. The probabilistic forecast assessment was performed over the 1996?2009 retrospective forecast period for the event rainy season onset earlier (or later) than the historical (mean) onset date. The three investigated approaches resulted in similar discrimination ability of around 80%, which represents the probability of the probabilistic forecasts correctly distinguishing earlier from a later than mean onsets, suggesting good potential for rainy season onset forecasts for São Paulo. The robustness of this assessment for an extended period (longer than 1996?2009) and for a region (20 ? S, 25 ? S, 45 ? W, 55 ? W) that includes the city of São Paulo was checked, reinforcing the validity of the obtained results at both local and regional scales.
650 $aProbabilistic models
650 $aWeather forecasting
650 $aWet season
650 $aChuva
650 $aPrevisão do tempo
700 1 $aFIRPO, M. A. F.
700 1 $aMAIA, A. de H. N.
700 1 $aMACLACHLAN, C.
773 $tInternational Journal of Climatology$gv. 37, p. 398-411, 2017. Supplement 1.
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Registro original: |
Embrapa Meio Ambiente (CNPMA) |
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Registro Completo
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Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Meio-Norte. |
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Data corrente: |
06/03/2017 |
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Data da última atualização: |
13/12/2023 |
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Tipo da produção científica: |
Resumo em Anais de Congresso |
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Autoria: |
SANTOS, R. V. dos; FOGACA, F. H. dos S.; PEREIRA, A. M. L.; MIZAEL, F. H.; RODRIGUES, L. A.; MAGALHAES, J. A. |
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Afiliação: |
R. V. DOS SANTOS; FABIOLA HELENA DOS SANTOS FOGACA, CPAMN; ALITIENE MOURA LEMOS PEREIRA, CPAMN; F. H. MIZAEL; LAURINDO ANDRE RODRIGUES, CPAMN; JOAO AVELAR MAGALHAES, CPAMN. |
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Título: |
Depuration of Anomalocardia brasiliana to increase the value of shellfish collected on the Piaui Coast, Brazil. |
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Ano de publicação: |
2016 |
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Fonte/Imprenta: |
In: WORLD CONGRESS OF FOOD SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, 18., 2016. Dublin. Greening the global food supply Chain: through innovation in food science and technology: Book of Proceedings. Dublin: IFSTI, 2016. |
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Idioma: |
Inglês |
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Notas: |
IUFOST 2016. |
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Palavras-Chave: |
Marisco Anomalocardia brasiliana; Processo de extração; Qualidade da carne. |
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Thesagro: |
Alimento. |
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Categoria do assunto: |
Q Alimentos e Nutrição Humana |
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URL: |
https://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/item/157094/1/ArtigoIUFost-Capa1.pdf
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Marc: |
LEADER 00868nam a2200217 a 4500
001 2066134
005 2023-12-13
008 2016 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d
100 1 $aSANTOS, R. V. dos
245 $aDepuration of Anomalocardia brasiliana to increase the value of shellfish collected on the Piaui Coast, Brazil.$h[electronic resource]
260 $aIn: WORLD CONGRESS OF FOOD SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, 18., 2016. Dublin. Greening the global food supply Chain: through innovation in food science and technology: Book of Proceedings. Dublin: IFSTI$c2016
500 $aIUFOST 2016.
650 $aAlimento
653 $aMarisco Anomalocardia brasiliana
653 $aProcesso de extração
653 $aQualidade da carne
700 1 $aFOGACA, F. H. dos S.
700 1 $aPEREIRA, A. M. L.
700 1 $aMIZAEL, F. H.
700 1 $aRODRIGUES, L. A.
700 1 $aMAGALHAES, J. A.
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