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Registro Completo |
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Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Acre. |
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Data corrente: |
21/10/2019 |
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Data da última atualização: |
02/07/2021 |
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Tipo da produção científica: |
Artigo em Periódico Indexado |
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Autoria: |
ACUÑA, M. H. A.; OLIVEIRA, L. C. de; OLIVEIRA, M. V. N. d'; SOUZA, M. B.; COSTA, C. A. F. da. |
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Afiliação: |
M. H. A. Acuña, REDE-BIONORTE, Universidade Federal do Acre (Ufac); LUIS CLAUDIO DE OLIVEIRA, CPAF-AC; MARCUS VINICIO NEVES D OLIVEIRA, CPAF-AC; M. B. Souza, REDE-BIONORTE, Universidade Federal do Acre; C. A. F. da Costa, REDE-BIONORTE, Universidade Federal do Acre. |
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Título: |
Application of the Markov Chain in macroeconomic analysis of a managed forest in the Amazon. |
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Ano de publicação: |
2019 |
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Fonte/Imprenta: |
Journal of Agricultural Science, v. 11, n. 11, p. 172-184, 2019. |
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ISSN: |
1916-9752 (print) / 1916-9760 (online) |
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DOI: |
10.5539/jas.v11n11p172 |
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Idioma: |
Inglês |
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Conteúdo: |
This study includes an economic analysis of the dynamics and prognosis of the forest structure of an area under sustainable forest management in the Amazon, in the primary production of tropical roundwood. It analyzes measurements taken between 2001 and 2011 and carries out forest forecasting for the period from 2001 to 2021 with the application of the Markov Matrix Chain. The variables measured by the probability matrix were transformed into equivalent annual rates and compared over the same period to the Brazilian macroeconomic indicators of gross domestic product (GDP) and the real interest rate of primary roundwood production (TJLP). The valuation of tree density utilized a series of average prices of world imports and exports of roundwood. Between 2001 and 2011, the parameters of the forest dynamics without valuation were similar to the TJLP (1.4% per year) and, when valued, the rates were close to the GDP of 3.5% per year. The forecast from 2001 to 2021 indicates that unrated economic groups behave in a similar way to the TJLP of 1% per annum and to the GDP of 2.2% per year, except the recovery category, which has a negative rate of 1.9% per year. The monitoring of tropical forests allows the achievement of economic indexes capable of assessing the anthropic and natural impacts in short periods of analysis and projecting them over time on natural capital. |
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Palavras-Chave: |
Acre; Bujari (AC); Cadena de Márkov; Capital natural; Dinámica forestal; Floresta Estadual do Antimary (AC); Floresta ombrófila aberta; Forest dynamics; Manejo florestal sustentável; Modelos matemáticos; Silvicultura sustentable; Southwestern Amazon; Sudoeste da Amazônia. |
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Thesagro: |
Análise Econômica; Exploração Florestal; Floresta Tropical; Modelo Matemático. |
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Thesaurus Nal: |
Economic analysis; Markov chain; Mathematical models; Natural capital; Sustainable forestry. |
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Categoria do assunto: |
K Ciência Florestal e Produtos de Origem Vegetal |
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URL: |
https://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/item/203247/1/26879.pdf
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Marc: |
LEADER 02811naa a2200457 a 4500
001 2113288
005 2021-07-02
008 2019 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d
022 $a1916-9752 (print) / 1916-9760 (online)
024 7 $a10.5539/jas.v11n11p172$2DOI
100 1 $aACUÑA, M. H. A.
245 $aApplication of the Markov Chain in macroeconomic analysis of a managed forest in the Amazon.$h[electronic resource]
260 $c2019
520 $aThis study includes an economic analysis of the dynamics and prognosis of the forest structure of an area under sustainable forest management in the Amazon, in the primary production of tropical roundwood. It analyzes measurements taken between 2001 and 2011 and carries out forest forecasting for the period from 2001 to 2021 with the application of the Markov Matrix Chain. The variables measured by the probability matrix were transformed into equivalent annual rates and compared over the same period to the Brazilian macroeconomic indicators of gross domestic product (GDP) and the real interest rate of primary roundwood production (TJLP). The valuation of tree density utilized a series of average prices of world imports and exports of roundwood. Between 2001 and 2011, the parameters of the forest dynamics without valuation were similar to the TJLP (1.4% per year) and, when valued, the rates were close to the GDP of 3.5% per year. The forecast from 2001 to 2021 indicates that unrated economic groups behave in a similar way to the TJLP of 1% per annum and to the GDP of 2.2% per year, except the recovery category, which has a negative rate of 1.9% per year. The monitoring of tropical forests allows the achievement of economic indexes capable of assessing the anthropic and natural impacts in short periods of analysis and projecting them over time on natural capital.
650 $aEconomic analysis
650 $aMarkov chain
650 $aMathematical models
650 $aNatural capital
650 $aSustainable forestry
650 $aAnálise Econômica
650 $aExploração Florestal
650 $aFloresta Tropical
650 $aModelo Matemático
653 $aAcre
653 $aBujari (AC)
653 $aCadena de Márkov
653 $aCapital natural
653 $aDinámica forestal
653 $aFloresta Estadual do Antimary (AC)
653 $aFloresta ombrófila aberta
653 $aForest dynamics
653 $aManejo florestal sustentável
653 $aModelos matemáticos
653 $aSilvicultura sustentable
653 $aSouthwestern Amazon
653 $aSudoeste da Amazônia
700 1 $aOLIVEIRA, L. C. de
700 1 $aOLIVEIRA, M. V. N. d'
700 1 $aSOUZA, M. B.
700 1 $aCOSTA, C. A. F. da
773 $tJournal of Agricultural Science$gv. 11, n. 11, p. 172-184, 2019.
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Embrapa Acre (CPAF-AC) |
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