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Registro Completo |
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Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Agricultura Digital. |
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Data corrente: |
15/04/2009 |
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Data da última atualização: |
03/12/2010 |
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Autoria: |
PENALBA, P. C.; BELTRAN, A.; MESSINA, C. |
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Afiliação: |
OLGA C. PENALBA, FCEN/UBA; ADRIANA BELTRAN, UBA/Colorado State University; CARLOS MESSINA, IFEVA/UBA. |
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Título: |
Monthly rainfall in central-eastern Argentina and ENSO: a comparative study of rainfall forecast methodologies. |
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Ano de publicação: |
2005 |
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Fonte/Imprenta: |
Revista Brasileira de Agrometeorologia, Piracicaba, v. 13, n. 2, p. 236-249, 2005. |
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Idioma: |
Inglês |
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Conteúdo: |
This paper examines the relationship between monthly rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and explores a system to forecast monthly rainfall likelihood, based on the 'phase locking' of the Southern Oscillation Index, in comparison to ENSO events. The studied region, the Pampas, located in central-eastern Argentina, is one of the areas of greatest agricultural and farming potential throughout the world. This research intends to have direct application to agricultural decision support programs. Spatial patterns of several statistical properties of rainfall are analyzed for each month, considering cold and warm events. Differences between these properties are not always statistically significant, depending on the station and the developing stage of the ENSO event. A high-degree of regional variability is found; nevertheless, monthly rainfall tends to be above normal values in warm events and below the normal in cold ones. A remarkable feature is the reversal of the sign of the anomalies during February(1) in cold events and a weakening (and even a sign reversal) in some stations in warm events. The probability of exceeding the neutral-median is better defined: low probability-cold events and high probability-warm events. The ENSO-related rainfall signal is used as reference in the probabilistic rainfall forecast based on Southern Oscillation Index phases. The rainfall pattern in warm (cold) event is associated with the SOI phase 1 or "consistently negative" phase (SOI phase 2 or "consistently positive"). A lead-time of three to six months, especially for November (0), appears to be feasible. However, the lead-time found in SOI phases methodology does not improve the "forecast" provided by the ENSO methodology occurrence; given ENSO event has already entered into the development stage. The high degree of regional variability found in ENSO-related rainfall has to be taken into account in any rainfall forecast for the region. MenosThis paper examines the relationship between monthly rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and explores a system to forecast monthly rainfall likelihood, based on the 'phase locking' of the Southern Oscillation Index, in comparison to ENSO events. The studied region, the Pampas, located in central-eastern Argentina, is one of the areas of greatest agricultural and farming potential throughout the world. This research intends to have direct application to agricultural decision support programs. Spatial patterns of several statistical properties of rainfall are analyzed for each month, considering cold and warm events. Differences between these properties are not always statistically significant, depending on the station and the developing stage of the ENSO event. A high-degree of regional variability is found; nevertheless, monthly rainfall tends to be above normal values in warm events and below the normal in cold ones. A remarkable feature is the reversal of the sign of the anomalies during February(1) in cold events and a weakening (and even a sign reversal) in some stations in warm events. The probability of exceeding the neutral-median is better defined: low probability-cold events and high probability-warm events. The ENSO-related rainfall signal is used as reference in the probabilistic rainfall forecast based on Southern Oscillation Index phases. The rainfall pattern in warm (cold) event is associated with the SOI phase 1 or "consistently negativ... Mostrar Tudo |
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Palavras-Chave: |
Agrometeorologia; ENSO; Índice de Oscilação Sul; Metodologias de previsão de precipitação; Pampas Argentinos; Precipitação mensal. |
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Thesaurus Nal: |
El Nino. |
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Categoria do assunto: |
-- |
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Marc: |
LEADER 02704naa a2200229 a 4500
001 1031977
005 2010-12-03
008 2005 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d
100 1 $aPENALBA, P. C.
245 $aMonthly rainfall in central-eastern Argentina and ENSO$ba comparative study of rainfall forecast methodologies.
260 $c2005
520 $aThis paper examines the relationship between monthly rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and explores a system to forecast monthly rainfall likelihood, based on the 'phase locking' of the Southern Oscillation Index, in comparison to ENSO events. The studied region, the Pampas, located in central-eastern Argentina, is one of the areas of greatest agricultural and farming potential throughout the world. This research intends to have direct application to agricultural decision support programs. Spatial patterns of several statistical properties of rainfall are analyzed for each month, considering cold and warm events. Differences between these properties are not always statistically significant, depending on the station and the developing stage of the ENSO event. A high-degree of regional variability is found; nevertheless, monthly rainfall tends to be above normal values in warm events and below the normal in cold ones. A remarkable feature is the reversal of the sign of the anomalies during February(1) in cold events and a weakening (and even a sign reversal) in some stations in warm events. The probability of exceeding the neutral-median is better defined: low probability-cold events and high probability-warm events. The ENSO-related rainfall signal is used as reference in the probabilistic rainfall forecast based on Southern Oscillation Index phases. The rainfall pattern in warm (cold) event is associated with the SOI phase 1 or "consistently negative" phase (SOI phase 2 or "consistently positive"). A lead-time of three to six months, especially for November (0), appears to be feasible. However, the lead-time found in SOI phases methodology does not improve the "forecast" provided by the ENSO methodology occurrence; given ENSO event has already entered into the development stage. The high degree of regional variability found in ENSO-related rainfall has to be taken into account in any rainfall forecast for the region.
650 $aEl Nino
653 $aAgrometeorologia
653 $aENSO
653 $aÍndice de Oscilação Sul
653 $aMetodologias de previsão de precipitação
653 $aPampas Argentinos
653 $aPrecipitação mensal
700 1 $aBELTRAN, A.
700 1 $aMESSINA, C.
773 $tRevista Brasileira de Agrometeorologia, Piracicaba$gv. 13, n. 2, p. 236-249, 2005.
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Registro original: |
Embrapa Agricultura Digital (CNPTIA) |
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