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 | Acesso ao texto completo restrito à biblioteca da Embrapa Agricultura Digital. Para informações adicionais entre em contato com cnptia.biblioteca@embrapa.br. |
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Registro Completo |
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Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Agricultura Digital. |
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Data corrente: |
31/05/2021 |
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Data da última atualização: |
02/06/2021 |
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Tipo da produção científica: |
Artigo em Periódico Indexado |
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Autoria: |
MILLINGTON, J. D. A.; KATERINCHUK, V.; SILVA, R. F. B. da; VICTORIA, D. de C.; BATISTELLA, M. |
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Afiliação: |
JAMES D. A. MILLINGTON, KING’S COLLEGE LONDON; VALERI KATERINCHUK, KING'S COLLEGE LONDON; RAMON FELIPE BICUDO DA SILVA, MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY, NEPAM/UNICAMP; DANIEL DE CASTRO VICTORIA, CNPTIA; MATEUS BATISTELLA, NEPAM/UNICAMP, CNPTIA. |
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Título: |
Modelling drivers of Brazilian agricultural change in a telecoupled world. |
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Ano de publicação: |
2021 |
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Fonte/Imprenta: |
Environmental Modelling and Software, v. 139, p. 1-16, May 2021. |
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DOI: |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105024 |
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Idioma: |
Inglês |
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Conteúdo: |
Abstract. Increasing global demand for agricultural commodities has driven local land use/cover change (LUCC) and agricultural production across Brazil during the 21st century. Modelling tools are needed to help understand the range of possible outcomes due to these 'telecoupled' global-to-local relationships, given future political, economic and environmental uncertainties. Here, we present CRAFTY-Brazil, a LUCC model representing production of multiple agricultural commodities that accounts for spatially explicit (e.g., land access) and temporally contingent (e.g., agricultural debt) processes of importance across our nearly four million km2 Brazilian study area. We calibrate the model calibration for 2001-2018, and run tests and scenarios about commodity demand, agricultural yields, climate change, and policy decisions for 2019-2035. Results indicate greater confidence in modelled time-series than spatial allocation. We discuss how our approach might be best understood to be agency-based, rather than agent-based, and highlight questions more and less appropriate for this approach. |
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Palavras-Chave: |
Agent-based; Agricultural production; Cobertura da terra; CRAFTY framework; CRAFTY-Brazil; Teleacoplamento; Telecoupling. |
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Thesagro: |
Agricultura; Produção Agrícola; Simulação; Uso da Terra. |
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Thesaurus Nal: |
Agriculture; Land cover; Land use; Simulation models. |
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Categoria do assunto: |
X Pesquisa, Tecnologia e Engenharia |
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Marc: |
LEADER 02155naa a2200361 a 4500
001 2132108
005 2021-06-02
008 2021 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d
024 7 $ahttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105024$2DOI
100 1 $aMILLINGTON, J. D. A.
245 $aModelling drivers of Brazilian agricultural change in a telecoupled world.$h[electronic resource]
260 $c2021
520 $aAbstract. Increasing global demand for agricultural commodities has driven local land use/cover change (LUCC) and agricultural production across Brazil during the 21st century. Modelling tools are needed to help understand the range of possible outcomes due to these 'telecoupled' global-to-local relationships, given future political, economic and environmental uncertainties. Here, we present CRAFTY-Brazil, a LUCC model representing production of multiple agricultural commodities that accounts for spatially explicit (e.g., land access) and temporally contingent (e.g., agricultural debt) processes of importance across our nearly four million km2 Brazilian study area. We calibrate the model calibration for 2001-2018, and run tests and scenarios about commodity demand, agricultural yields, climate change, and policy decisions for 2019-2035. Results indicate greater confidence in modelled time-series than spatial allocation. We discuss how our approach might be best understood to be agency-based, rather than agent-based, and highlight questions more and less appropriate for this approach.
650 $aAgriculture
650 $aLand cover
650 $aLand use
650 $aSimulation models
650 $aAgricultura
650 $aProdução Agrícola
650 $aSimulação
650 $aUso da Terra
653 $aAgent-based
653 $aAgricultural production
653 $aCobertura da terra
653 $aCRAFTY framework
653 $aCRAFTY-Brazil
653 $aTeleacoplamento
653 $aTelecoupling
700 1 $aKATERINCHUK, V.
700 1 $aSILVA, R. F. B. da
700 1 $aVICTORIA, D. de C.
700 1 $aBATISTELLA, M.
773 $tEnvironmental Modelling and Software$gv. 139, p. 1-16, May 2021.
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