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Registro Completo |
Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Roraima. |
Data corrente: |
12/11/2021 |
Data da última atualização: |
12/11/2021 |
Tipo da produção científica: |
Artigo em Periódico Indexado |
Autoria: |
ANDERSON, L. O.; BURTON, C.; REIS, J. B. C. dos; PESSÔA, A. C. M.; BETT, P.; CARVALHO, N. S.; SILVA JUNIOR, C. H. L.; WILLIAMS, K.; SELAYA, G.; ARMENTERAS, D.; BILBAO, B. A.; XAUD, H. A. M.; RIVERA-LOMBARDI, R.; FERREIRA, J. N.; ARAGÃO, L. E. O. C.; JONES, C. D.; WILTSHIRE, A. J. |
Afiliação: |
HARON ABRAHIM MAGALHAES XAUD, CPAF-RR; JOICE NUNES FERREIRA, CPATU. |
Título: |
An alert systemfor Seasonal Fire probability forecast for South American Protected Areas. |
Ano de publicação: |
2021 |
Fonte/Imprenta: |
Climate Resilience and Sustainability, p. 1-19, 2021. |
DOI: |
DOI: 10.1002/cli2.19 |
Idioma: |
Inglês |
Conteúdo: |
Timely spatially explicit warning of areas with high fire occurrence probability is an important component of strategic plans to prevent andmonitor fires within South American (SA) Protected Areas (PAs). In this study, we present a five-level alert system,which combines both climatological and anthropogenic factors, the two main drivers of fires in SA. The alert levels are: High Alert, Alert, Attention, Observation and Low Probability. The trend in the number of active fires over the past three years and the accumulated number of active fires over the same period were used as indicators of intensification of human use of fire in that region, possibly associated with ongoing land use/land cover change (LULCC). An ensemble of temperature and precipitation gridded output from the GloSea5 Seasonal Forecast System was used to indicate an enhanced probability of hot and dry weather conditions that combined with LULCC favour fire occurrences. Alerts from this system were first issued in August 2020, for the period ranging from August to October (ASO) 2020. Overall, 50% of all fires observed during the ASO 2017?2019 period and 40% of the ASO 2020 fires occurred in only 29 PAs were all categorized in the top two alert levels. In categories mapped as High Alert level, 34% of the PAs experienced an increase in fires compared with the 2017?2019 reference period, and 81% of the High Alert false alarm registered fire occurrence above the median. Initial feedback from stakeholders indicates that these alerts were used to inform resource management in some PAs. We expect that these forecasts can provide continuous information aiming at changing societal perceptions of fire use and consequently subsidize strategic planning andmitigatory actions, focusing on timely responses to a disaster risk management strategy. Further research must focus on the model improvement and knowledge translation to stakeholders. MenosTimely spatially explicit warning of areas with high fire occurrence probability is an important component of strategic plans to prevent andmonitor fires within South American (SA) Protected Areas (PAs). In this study, we present a five-level alert system,which combines both climatological and anthropogenic factors, the two main drivers of fires in SA. The alert levels are: High Alert, Alert, Attention, Observation and Low Probability. The trend in the number of active fires over the past three years and the accumulated number of active fires over the same period were used as indicators of intensification of human use of fire in that region, possibly associated with ongoing land use/land cover change (LULCC). An ensemble of temperature and precipitation gridded output from the GloSea5 Seasonal Forecast System was used to indicate an enhanced probability of hot and dry weather conditions that combined with LULCC favour fire occurrences. Alerts from this system were first issued in August 2020, for the period ranging from August to October (ASO) 2020. Overall, 50% of all fires observed during the ASO 2017?2019 period and 40% of the ASO 2020 fires occurred in only 29 PAs were all categorized in the top two alert levels. In categories mapped as High Alert level, 34% of the PAs experienced an increase in fires compared with the 2017?2019 reference period, and 81% of the High Alert false alarm registered fire occurrence above the median. Initial feedback from stakeholders indicate... Mostrar Tudo |
Palavras-Chave: |
Conservation; Disaster risk reduction; Mitigation. |
Thesaurus Nal: |
Wildfires. |
Categoria do assunto: |
-- |
URL: |
https://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/item/227720/1/cli2.191.pdf
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Marc: |
LEADER 02985naa a2200373 a 4500 001 2136099 005 2021-11-12 008 2021 bl uuuu u00u1 u #d 024 7 $aDOI: 10.1002/cli2.19$2DOI 100 1 $aANDERSON, L. O. 245 $aAn alert systemfor Seasonal Fire probability forecast for South American Protected Areas.$h[electronic resource] 260 $c2021 520 $aTimely spatially explicit warning of areas with high fire occurrence probability is an important component of strategic plans to prevent andmonitor fires within South American (SA) Protected Areas (PAs). In this study, we present a five-level alert system,which combines both climatological and anthropogenic factors, the two main drivers of fires in SA. The alert levels are: High Alert, Alert, Attention, Observation and Low Probability. The trend in the number of active fires over the past three years and the accumulated number of active fires over the same period were used as indicators of intensification of human use of fire in that region, possibly associated with ongoing land use/land cover change (LULCC). An ensemble of temperature and precipitation gridded output from the GloSea5 Seasonal Forecast System was used to indicate an enhanced probability of hot and dry weather conditions that combined with LULCC favour fire occurrences. Alerts from this system were first issued in August 2020, for the period ranging from August to October (ASO) 2020. Overall, 50% of all fires observed during the ASO 2017?2019 period and 40% of the ASO 2020 fires occurred in only 29 PAs were all categorized in the top two alert levels. In categories mapped as High Alert level, 34% of the PAs experienced an increase in fires compared with the 2017?2019 reference period, and 81% of the High Alert false alarm registered fire occurrence above the median. Initial feedback from stakeholders indicates that these alerts were used to inform resource management in some PAs. We expect that these forecasts can provide continuous information aiming at changing societal perceptions of fire use and consequently subsidize strategic planning andmitigatory actions, focusing on timely responses to a disaster risk management strategy. Further research must focus on the model improvement and knowledge translation to stakeholders. 650 $aWildfires 653 $aConservation 653 $aDisaster risk reduction 653 $aMitigation 700 1 $aBURTON, C. 700 1 $aREIS, J. B. C. dos 700 1 $aPESSÔA, A. C. M. 700 1 $aBETT, P. 700 1 $aCARVALHO, N. S. 700 1 $aSILVA JUNIOR, C. H. L. 700 1 $aWILLIAMS, K. 700 1 $aSELAYA, G. 700 1 $aARMENTERAS, D. 700 1 $aBILBAO, B. A. 700 1 $aXAUD, H. A. M. 700 1 $aRIVERA-LOMBARDI, R. 700 1 $aFERREIRA, J. N. 700 1 $aARAGÃO, L. E. O. C. 700 1 $aJONES, C. D. 700 1 $aWILTSHIRE, A. J. 773 $tClimate Resilience and Sustainability, p. 1-19, 2021.
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Embrapa Roraima (CPAF-RR) |
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Registro Completo
Biblioteca(s): |
Embrapa Semiárido. |
Data corrente: |
02/04/2003 |
Data da última atualização: |
23/11/2023 |
Tipo da produção científica: |
Autoria/Organização/Edição de Livros |
Autoria: |
MITERNIQUE, S.; CARON, P.; CARVALHO FILHO, O. M. de; CERDAN, C. T.; HOLANDA NETO, J. |
Afiliação: |
ORLANDO MONTEIRO DE CARVALHO FILHO, CPATSA. |
Título: |
Production et valorisation dud lait et de ses derives dans la region semi-aride du Sergipe (Bresil): cas du municipe de Nossa Senhora da Gloria. |
Ano de publicação: |
1996 |
Fonte/Imprenta: |
Petrolina: EMBRAPA-CPATSA: EMDAGRO: CIRAD-SAR, 1996. |
Volume: |
2 v. il. |
Idioma: |
Francês |
Conteúdo: |
Le contexte de l'etude; Histoire du bassin laitier; La commercialisation des produits lactes et les fabriquettes; Evolution de la production; Strategies et pratiques; Quelques recommandations techniques pour l1appui a la production. |
Palavras-Chave: |
Mão de obra familiar; Nossa Senhora da Glória; Região Semi-Árida; Sergipe. |
Thesagro: |
Bacia Leiteira; Comercialização; Economia; Historia; Leite; Mercado; Pequeno Produtor; Produção. |
Thesaurus NAL: |
Commercialization; History; Milk. |
Categoria do assunto: |
L Ciência Animal e Produtos de Origem Animal |
Marc: |
LEADER 01250nam a2200361 a 4500 001 1147621 005 2023-11-23 008 1996 bl uuuu 00u1 u #d 100 1 $aMITERNIQUE, S. 245 $aProduction et valorisation dud lait et de ses derives dans la region semi-aride du Sergipe (Bresil)$bcas du municipe de Nossa Senhora da Gloria. 260 $aPetrolina: EMBRAPA-CPATSA: EMDAGRO: CIRAD-SAR$c1996 300 $a2 v. il. 490 $v2 v. il. 520 $aLe contexte de l'etude; Histoire du bassin laitier; La commercialisation des produits lactes et les fabriquettes; Evolution de la production; Strategies et pratiques; Quelques recommandations techniques pour l1appui a la production. 650 $aCommercialization 650 $aHistory 650 $aMilk 650 $aBacia Leiteira 650 $aComercialização 650 $aEconomia 650 $aHistoria 650 $aLeite 650 $aMercado 650 $aPequeno Produtor 650 $aProdução 653 $aMão de obra familiar 653 $aNossa Senhora da Glória 653 $aRegião Semi-Árida 653 $aSergipe 700 1 $aCARON, P. 700 1 $aCARVALHO FILHO, O. M. de 700 1 $aCERDAN, C. T. 700 1 $aHOLANDA NETO, J.
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